Defending Payments in an AI Fraud Era

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Key Takeaways:

  • Payment fraud is accelerating and evolving. Losses are projected to reach $91 billion in 2028, and nearly 80% of organizations reported attacks or attempts in 2024. Fraud is no longer occasional; it’s global, complex and relentless.
  • AI is a double-edged sword. Businesses use AI to fight fraud, but bad actors also leverage AI to automate fraud, create synthetic identities and launch sophisticated phishing campaigns that evade traditional detection.
  • Modern fraud protection requires agility and intelligence. Businesses need solutions that deploy quickly, adapt to unique transaction patterns and provide full visibility with customizable controls—backed by expert support to stay ahead of evolving threats.

The payments industry is under siege. Fraud is no longer an occasional nuisance. It’s accelerating at unprecedented speeds, becoming increasingly sophisticated and harder to detect. For businesses that accept online payments, it often feels like playing a relentless game of whack-a-mole. As soon they address one threat, another emerges.

 

The cost of payment fraud is growing

Scams, account takeovers and fake identities drive most payment fraud schemes. Recent industry research underscores the scale of the problem:

  • $362 billion: Projected global losses from online payment fraud between 2023–2028, with $91 billion expected in 2028 alone.
  • 79% of organizations reported being victims of payment fraud attacks or attempts in 2024.
  • $534 billion: Average amount forfeited in 2024 among business leaders surveyed. This is equal to 7.7% of annual revenue.

The bottom line: Fraud is not just costly, it is evolving, complex and global in scope.

 

Even fraudsters are using AI

Businesses are increasingly seeking partners who are leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) in their fraud protection tools.

Unfortunately, bad actors are also tapping AI to steal billions of dollars. Fraudsters employ machine learning algorithms to identify patterns in transaction data, initiate account takeovers and automate fraud schemes. They can also generate synthetic identities that are difficult to detect, even with newer fraud protection tools.

AI tools also enable fraudsters to launch sophisticated phishing campaigns that optimize the timing and volume of fraudulent transactions. These tools even evade traditional rule-based detection systems that cannot effectively respond to novel attack patterns. This means that fraud is no longer just opportunistic; it’s intelligent. That’s why having proper security mechanisms in place is paramount for businesses. Fraudsters are calculated and adaptive, and they are scaling at the same speed as legitimate digital payments.

 

Prominent payment fraud types

The types of payment fraud emerging today are highly diverse, targeting businesses of every size and across all industries. Businesses, merchants and independent software vendors must understand common attack methods fraudsters use. This is a key first step to integrating fraud protection capabilities.

Common threats

  • Excessive payment fraud/refund fraud
    • What it is: Customers deliberately or accidentally submit payments exceeding owed amounts, later requesting refunds.
    • Why it matters: It creates significant financial losses through credit card and Automated Clearing House (ACH) chargebacks. It also damages processors’ and merchant networks’ credibility.
  • Merchant bust‑out fraud
    • What it is: Fraudulent merchants or impersonators rapidly process a high volume of irregular transactions before disappearing.
    • Why it matters: Merchants risk chargebacks, inflated fees and refund abuse. This disrupts cash flow and causes financial distress. It is especially problematic when high-dollar amounts funnel to unauthorized accounts.
  • Merchant credit events/defaults
    • What it is: Intended or unintended payment defaults by a merchant. Causes include disputes, chargebacks, returns, mismanaged cash flow and weak financial positioning.
    • Why it matters: Defaults lead to financial instability, credit events, missed payments and bankruptcies.
  • Customer payment fraud
    • What it is: Fraudulent merchants or impersonators rapidly process a high volume of irregular transactions before disappearing.
    • Why it matters: Merchants risk chargebacks, inflated fees and refund abuse. This disrupts cash flow and causes financial distress. It is especially problematic when high-dollar amounts funnel to unauthorized accounts.

More advanced fraud

  • Account takeover (ATO) fraud
    • What it is: Fraudsters steal credentials or run phishing scams to access merchant or customer accounts.
    • Why it matters: Causes direct financial theft, reputational damage, financial losses, potential bankruptcies and regulatory exposure.
  • Anti-money laundering (AML) violations
    • What it is: Illegally obtained funds move through legitimate payment channels to obscure their origins.
    • Why it matters: Brings serious compliance and regulatory consequences, including mandatory reporting, penalties, closures and reputational damage.
  • Card testing fraud
    • What it is: Fraudsters test stolen or generated card numbers with small transactions to identify valid working accounts.
    • Why it matters: It increases payment declines and makes processing more expensive. It also opens doors to bigger attacks that can lead to serious financial problems.

 

Where today’s solutions fall short

Many businesses rely on established fraud prevention tools. They often fall behind increasingly sophisticated fraud attacks. The biggest gaps in traditional systems include:

  • Slow response times: Older systems cannot keep up with fast-growing payment volumes. Without real-time detection, threats slip through and cause losses.
  • Poor customer experience: Outdated models often flag legitimate transactions as fraud. This leads to delays, declined payments and frustrated customers who expect smooth, secure payments.
  • Generic tools: One-size-fits-all solutions do not match the unique risks of different industries. Without customizable rules and thresholds, businesses either block good payments or miss high-risk ones.
  • Rigid systems and long deployments: Many “customizable” tools take months to implement, cost a lot to maintain and require internal teams for every update. Adapting to new fraud patterns becomes slow and expensive.
  • Costly in-house builds: Some businesses try building their own solution. They quickly discover that it demands constant investment, specialized skills and resources that pull focus from core operations.
  • Fragmented protection: Digital payments span multiple channels and regions, but many tools only cover part of the fraud landscape. Disconnected systems create blind spots, delays and inconsistent results.

 

What businesses need in modern fraud protection solutions

Risk management has transformed from a back-office function to strategic necessity and businesses need better support. Fortunately, new providers are challenging the status quo. They are taking a different technological and process approach to fight payment fraud. Key capabilities to look for in a fraud tech partner include:

  • Ever-learning technology: AI-powered platforms that continuously adapt to emerging risks. These platforms learn from new, diverse data without requiring heavy technical overhauls. This significantly reduces false positives, improving customer experience and driving stronger return on investment for businesses.
  • Implementation efficiency: In fraud prevention, speed is critical. Fraudsters exploit any delay. It is important to set up quickly with little effort required from the client. After implementation, ongoing support and expert guidance help businesses stay ahead of fraud.
  • Nimble customization: Customizable systems that adapt to unique transaction patterns and industry needs give businesses detailed, optimized protection.
  • Comprehensive coverage: Robust protection across fraud vectors, payment types, channels and geographics with processor-agnostic deployment gives businesses maximum flexibility as their priorities evolve.
  • Transparency and control: Clear decision logic, adjustable risk thresholds, detailed reporting and API integration deliver actionable insights for effective payment fraud prevention.

 

Partnering for protection

The payments landscape will only grow more complex. Businesses should look for a partner that offers intelligent technology with these key attributes. They should also look for consultative risk management that improves their tools and processes without the outsized price tag.

CSG Forte is on the forefront of addressing payment fraud schemes. Our payment fraud protection tools can help your business stay ahead of bad actors. Learn how to keep legitimate payments flowing smoothly while stopping fraudulent activity in its tracks. Explore the CSG Forte website and sign up for a demo.